Lang dialogue with the political and economic hot spot - 2008 Soviet enterprise leaders summit and a new strategy \ new thinking and Economic Management Forum at 4:11 p.m. on the June 10, 2008 Source: Suzhou Search Room Moderator: We have come here Lang have heard so much applause, and I believe we have been looking for a long time here, today to see Lang Ham
Ping to our site, we were very delighted. Professor Lang asked a Well to begin with.
Lang: Good afternoon.
Moderator: 2008 Suzhou business leaders summit and new strategies, new thinking and Economic Management Forum held a grand here. First, I introduce the main
Office unit has co-organized, they are China Merchants Property Development Co., Ltd. of Suzhou, Suzhou Fahrenheit undertaken by the Culture Communication Co., Ltd.. Co-organized by Zhejiang University, media
Body co-is "21st Century Business Herald", "Central People's Radio Voice of the economy channel", "Su", "SouFun."
Our guest speaker is Professor Lang. Today 来了这么多 friends are on Lang is worship, otherwise they will not be much here, are
On Lang to have a clear understanding of. I am here on Lang to make a simple introduction. Lang is a graduate of Pennsylvania College of Commerce
PhD, is President of the Chinese University professor lectures. New York University, the University of Chicago professor, he is a world-class corporate governance and financial experts. We
Welcome again to applause. Today, we process such a forum like this. From now on, we Lang Professor of us here to conduct a dialogue
You present a friend if you have any kind of problem you want to exchange with Professor Lang listen, you can start your question by show of hands, Lang
Professor will be based on your question in our exchanges and dialogue.
Lang: I mean, today's topic is very interesting, is the political and economic hot spots, I heard the political, I think, wow, the people's courage in Suzhou
Child so big, the problem of political dialogue, ask what you want talking to me today, what political issues? We change a form, we choose five hot spots, you
Want to know the hot spots, in my speech which I put it together.
Moderator: What are the friend in question?
Question: I am a third time to see you, I'm home network 365, in last year's summit in Suzhou property met you, I was a media reporter, I am now
China property market appears very concerned about the phenomenon of price cuts, you is how to evaluate the economic point of view this phenomenon of lower prices of the property market, property market and the economy as an important branch of national economy
Pillar industries, and his influence will be the impact of what the national economy?
Lang: the first question.
Question 2: Professor Lang, Hello, I should meet a second time with you, the first time two years ago, also in Suzhou Convention Center, made
A speech, when I was with you to do a face to face communication, do not know you remember?
Lang: I remember it. You asked that I said remember. Question 2: Because this is the case, and different times have different hot spots, near a hot stage
Problem, we compare the network frying a donation door hot events, Wang Shi donations door event, please give us your comment about, or talk about Wang Shi's
Problem. How you look at our social responsibility of the developers? Thank you?
Lang: Yes, 2.
Moderator: very good question 2, there are no men more actively?
Question 3: Professor Lang Hello, nice to see you here today, I will not ask you to political issues, I did mention an economic aspect, in my mind
Was in March 2008 to make a speech in Hefei your time, when a private entrepreneur, is doing his own electrical business, he has about 2 billion yuan, is due to
RMB appreciation pressure on the various aspects of the economy is relatively large. He wanted to use funds to develop new products, the enterprises bigger and stronger, he had asked you that you have any good suggestions
Built is not suggested that he do so? At that time I saw your answer, you do not answer him directly, you profile to tell him that next year than this year even more sad when I see
Had the answer, I feel very desolate, how China's private economy like this? I have a friend in the team, pay attention to the whole country is an entrepreneurial enterprise
I would like to ask, in 2008, I want to do a friend a team venture capital, private equity fund to invest 2 billion to be a component of the manufacturing industry, a record
Industry-oriented enterprises, to engage in an integrated strategy, the next two to three independent research and development, as the enterprise's Fa Zhan, projection of 5 years after the companies listed, VC itself
Necessary to introduce a mechanism, I would like to ask Professor Lang, in today's economic climate system, you for such a class of this entrepreneurial business, your idea is even
What kind?
Lang: I am willing to answer such a question.
Question 3: Thank you.
Question 4: I have a larger problem that we all know that companies, China's economic structure, a very high degree of reliance on export-oriented, RMB appreciation, labor
Force rise in value, the tariff of these policies, 以及 our country on environmental protection, and competition in the international market on the full, lead us to 现在 countries Henduo the industry
Withdrawal, the world's factory, by a relatively large, I think the larger challenge. Then, in Dongguan there or there are a lot of Shandong
Hong Kong, Taiwan capital, constant capital began to leave China, we are now in advocacy to encourage domestic ZF, how to go out with independent intellectual property rights, in fact, that
Is a very painful process of change and a very challenging process, I now have no legal way to use this measure, or is very clear thinking
Road run by our ZF on an economic environment that such a strategy some of the above idea, because not long ago that our textile and tax down, this time
To tune up, not long ago we transferred the securities transaction tax go up, while further down, the exchange rate rise, the RMB appreciation quickly, and now again down the dollar,
Quickly on oil prices, our domestic obstinately stuck to him, these problems I do not know when it will burst forth, the emergence of a larger set of more turmoil
Neutral outbreak. These problems, I can not find data, sorry, relatively large, this issue.
Lang: very good question. Last question.
Question 5: Hello, Professor Lang, we Suzhou University Business School MBA's four students, many of your ideas above, we have been discussing in class,
Many of your ideas are very fresh, we teachers often view as a case for your introduction, you have the opportunity today and close contact with us is very excited, I have
Two questions. You are a very good economist, but then, today's subject is corporate leaders, as well as entrepreneurs, some say it, there is such
A statement, a very good economist, he is usually a very rational thinking, especially as Professor Lang, I see you in the analysis of many
The success of the company are very rational thinking, to use the data to speak, but the entrepreneurs, then there is the view that they are nonlinear animals, they often rely on
Perceptual awareness, they do not much like Lang this very profound economic principles, but they are equally good, my first question, would like to ask
What Lang Professor, how do you view economists and entrepreneurs such a mode of thinking between the different?
Second, I would like to ask about, Professor Lang, in the past you do a lot of business analysis, you battle the cold (sound), your criticism is Changhong
We are refreshing, if we set such a possibility, there is such an opportunity from the economists, Professor Lang into entrepreneurs
, You can not do more than they are now even better these CEOs do?
Lang: good.
Moderator: We have these friends are very powerful scene, ah, issues raised are very good, apart from Lang problem for the five speech
It will also leave a short time for questions. Now we put the stage to Lang.
Lang: Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon.
Thanks for this five friends raised the issue. In particular, his friend put the question seems to be particularly interesting. He said that one two years ago, listening to the question I answered an entrepreneur
I should not be doing this investment, we must understand that ah, in this public, I can not say you can not do, I just say that you can not do, you will collapse
Words, the media, I will be out of a public trouble. So I must be very tactful to tell you can not do, so that in the river, I mean all understood
, 2007, the day we will be sad, in 2008 will be worse. At that time, I said, ladies and gentlemen think, I mean, right? Today, no more day
Sorry for it? And you have to do manufacturing in Suzhou is very sad, and with export-related, there is no second chance, we do not have any illusions that I
Are the exports of the manufacturing sector will become better next year? I can tell you can not! Only become more worse. Another friend mentioned, he asked a more macro
The problem, in fact, my friend mentioned the problem can be as my opening speech today. He said the labor contract law, the exchange rate, interest rates and so the problem of labor costs
And the like, so he felt very sad day, he would like to ask the question that Professor Lang You see, he feels, he feels the economy to collapse
Feeling, is not you please give me comb? Ask these questions very well, then come back. How do I put these questions and the real estate you have something to do with it? That
Need 2 brush up. No 有两把刷子 not pull together. The Greater Shanghai area, and Guangdong are different, and Beijing is also not the same, the whole big Shanghai
Region is not down against rising prices, very intense. Currently in Shanghai housing prices begin to stabilize growth. However, Shenzhen's housing prices appear to decline if
This is the ZF data published, you carefully analyze this data is not so simple, we have to Shenzhen, for example, recently 70% of Shenzhen-based construction
This all connections with the outside, but people do not like Shenzhen to buy a house in connections with the outside, they like to live in the relevant period, so prices fell, but high-priced real estate within the Shenzhen customs are
Strong, the low-cost houses in the fall. Including Beijing, including your investment property in 1872, he was the opening price of 2.5 million different directions has been up from 25,000.
But the two, the second-hand housing prices are 2.3-2.8, you find that second-hand housing prices hit a discount, you put all of these phenomena combined, you can clear
Chu's see it, China's real estate did not issue the so-called inflection point, you have a question too simple to see if the Chinese real estate market can use the word inflection point
To explain, you really do not understand the real estate market. Chinese real estate market is very complex, and the extent and complexity of your previous two questions asked are closely related, in
Country estate of the popular, the reason for the problem from your previous two.
That is, the relative decline of manufacturing in China. The friend asked just one word, very good question. He said the domestic export sector hard, really to do business,
Do you want to switch from exports to domestic ah, do not say impossible, the difficulty is more difficult than that of exports. You know why? Those of you here from a variety of economic phenomena in
Face, look out, intermittent problems, but your biggest concerns? Is that you can not sum up all the issues into a thinking, today, my 2
More than an hour lecture, I am going to use a concept to you 5 questions, and your heart strings with all the confusion, from now on, to listen to my lesson Su
Chau, guests do, from you tonight is the opening of China's most distinguished economists of the.
Frankly speaking with you, our entire people, the users of the standard high ah, I was very surprised, especially my economics with our Mainland
Home in the Big Dipper, in the debate, Internet users to my understanding of the theory is far higher than economists on my understanding. Even users of the critical issues arising from the Wang Shi
, Talked to him a much higher level than I have users that Wang Shi you though a lot of peaks to conquer, but your heart is high, but a mound, the water
Level too high. This level is much higher than I, if I say directly scolded a. This is our situation, and talked about here, and very strange that you understand this society
It? The economy you understand? Why do policy issues ZF irrelevant then? Always keep up with progress, I tell you, because too complex. Too complex
Mixed up. I would like to ask you about, you not know, why so difficult domestic exports to switch? Let me ask you, Why do you not know all of you create
Business entrepreneurs so sorry you day? And you are basically the industry in which flute section. Why is our country's economic growth could reach 10%? Where to the move
Power?
I clearly say that we Chinese 10 years to the main driving force of economic development does not come from the bottom in an economy driven not! But all of them
Local ZF to invest heavily violently lift the results of GDP, as opposed to the local GDP ZF engineering-related departments to promote basic is overheating, you live in the industries
Greek cold, ZF model to promote economic development in our country that led the more than ten years of economic development, we could see from the GDP on, GDP growth of 10% per year
, Ladies and Gentlemen, we know the composition of GDP is the world's most unique malformation. We compared the United States and Japan do. Our investment in fixed assets inside GDP
What proportion of including bridge repair, elevated, real estate, the proportion of such fixed assets accounting for almost half. Spend? One can really drive economic development should
This is the consumer. Why? Well I need to buy something, you reproduction Well, this is normal. You produce some of the things I need to buy the normal, so the
Way on the normal development of the economy, but we are not. Proportion of GDP, we consume only half of the advanced countries, we have only less than 35%. Do you know what
Mean? That is such a high GDP, consumption only accounted for 35% of the ah, comrades, and overall economic development is through you can see, building bridges and roads, buildings built
Bridge lift, that is, the more poor people, the more developed the economy, you do not bring up the normal way, but lift GDP. Why do we think about domestic
So difficult? Why is it so difficult domestic exports to switch? The reason is because our country's consumer base is too small, only 35% understand what I mean? Therefore the
I would like to turn into a difficult domestic market more than exports. Because we consume too little. So what you think of our consumption so little, so inadequate, but so many
Entrepreneurs, so many manufacturers that you could hear clearly? My speech? Finally face? Can ah. As early as about it? I am almost finished the. I rely on this lecture
The power of pubic speaking, can not stop, we must re-luck, very troublesome.
Remember, we are spending only 35% of the domestic export sector is therefore very difficult. So that they would give us so little spending, but we have so
More enterprises, like you, Suzhou is one of the largest manufacturing, you produced so many consumer products itself not how to do? Can not export. This is the reality.
This is why our country's foreign exchange reserves from 1.2 trillion, did not take long to to 1.4 trillion, not reflect on to the 1.5 trillion over two days ago, I see
Was reported to 1.7 trillion, and this how terrible that this large accumulation of foreign exchange not because of our exports more smoothly, and no, comrades. But I
Were too few domestic consumption, we produced only exported copies of things, and in 2008 exports are basically bleeding. Accumulated large amounts of foreign exchange bloody
, And is certainly bloody devaluation of U.S. dollars. Turn, 1.7 trillion yuan in foreign exchange reserves, and gave the United States and Europe back to force the yuan to appreciate,
Further appreciation of the RMB against the all of you to do the export manufacturing sector. Thus a vicious circle. Coupled with the labor contract law, coupled with macro-control error
Wrong configuration, so you gradually tough day, every day sad. 2 years ago, people who heard my speech, when people understand, are made. That did not come
Listen to people who do not understand all this bad luck, and you want to sell the factory no one to buy. Believe it or not? You listen to my speech two years ago, when the sale was bought, sold today are
No one will buy, unless you free of charge. I would ask all entrepreneurs. In this environment, how do you do? You tell me about your lives right now. Ah your behavior
，就很特意。就很奇怪。因为你们再也不想拿更多的钱投入制造业了。尤其是和出口有关的，甚至和出口没关的你都不
想投了，你发现做制造业没有什么劲，没有什么意思。因为日子太难熬。你怎么办呢？想想你怎么办？你们啊，就会做
你们目前正在做的事。那就是不再继续扩张制造业了。不再转投资。把这些金钱省下来，不然就是汇到国外去，然后就
是炒楼、炒股，炒楼的话，在江浙两省，上海市，你炒楼绝对比你做制造业好得多得多。
上海市整个江浙两省的资金非常稳定，这也是他为什么地产稳定的向上走，可是这一切的现象，他的来源是什么？
各位想一想？他的来源就是从我刚才讲的GDP开始。我想顺着这个来源这句话，我告诉各位，为什么地产会好？大家想
一想，你们所做的制造业，不论是否出口，或者内销，基本上，都比较箫条。你们哪一位来宾感受到经济过热呢？你们
看到电视上讲的，ZF要透过进一步的更严格的宏观调控来防止经济过热。同志们，你们哪一个企业家除了地产之外，
你是感觉到经济是过热的？你告诉我？你们做制造业的企业家绝对不同意这一句话。因为你感受不到。你所能感受到的
就是两年以前我给各位提的警告。你们的日子从2年以前开始是逐渐的难熬。只会更坏不会更好，这是我2年前讲的话，
你们上网查一下都查得到。为什么我的判断这么准？是我比较聪明吗？不是的，只要你能够把握住中国经济的本质，你
全部都可以推算的出来，包括股价为什么跌落？今天我就透过这个演讲把这个秘诀透露给各位。
想不想知道？
你们企业家的制造业部门你觉得是箫条的，那么ZF所谓的膨胀是怎么回事呢？过热是怎么回事呢？就是我前面告
诉各位的，地方ZF以GDP为纲的理念推动着经济发展，因此和推动GDP工程有关的部门基本都是过热的，哪些部门呢？
地产、去年的钢铁、水泥、政绩工程、大型国企、银行。其他的民营制造业呢？都是过冷的，今天的中国经济结果不是
ZF所谓的过热，也不是各位企业家所感觉到的过冷，而是一个同时过热同时过冷的二元经济，20—30%是过热，70—
80%是过冷。如果各位读读报纸，看看电视，你会发现我们很多经济学家的论据是很有意思的，他们说，经济过热来源于
哪里呢？来源于流动性过剩，听过没有？听过这几个字没有？流动性过剩，所以我们经济过热，因此ZF所有宏观调控
的目标只有一个，那就是收回流动性。这么听起来好象有点道理，因为流动性过剩很好啊，什么叫流动性过剩呢？ We
这个社会钱太多了。那么钱这么多流动性这么过剩？那么拿这些钱去买楼，就有楼市泡沫，去买股票就有股市泡沫，去
买产品包括矿泉水就有什么？就有通货膨胀。所以只要把握住这个诀窍，你就可以解释目前你所看到的所有现象，包括
楼市泡沫包括股市泡沫以及通货膨胀。各位都听懂没有？
可是你们有没有想到，如果这是错的呢？如果大家都搞错了？实际上在半年以前，南方人物周刊采访给我，他们讲
的一句话特别有意思，他说：在全国学者认为股市泡沫楼市泡沫和通货膨胀是由于流动性过剩的情况之下，郎咸平认
为不是！如果郎咸平对的话，那么大家都错了。可是你们知道吗？走到了2008年的6 月，你竟然发现我就是对的，大
家都错了。否则你们何必来听我演讲呢？否则为什么我的演讲是越来越多呢？市场经济决定一切。搞了半天大家都不赚
钱的时候，我还能赚钱，我价码越叫越高，没有办法，市场经济。对吧。那我告诉各位，流动性过剩的解释是错的。 You
们相信吗？你们每天看到报纸上写的流动性过剩是错的，什么是对的呢？那就是我刚才提的二元经济才是对的。 Why
这么多年的宏观调控会失败？我们就以二元经济为基础，你什么都懂了。比如说过去你们会觉得，张瑞敏的海尔为什么
会去做房地产呢？是不是海尔有一套新型的不为人知的企业战略呢？根本不是，他有什么战略啊？他就是二元经济就能
解释，他为什么去做地产？他在电器业干不下去了，就这么简单，还有什么别的门道吗？没有了，就这么多水平。告诉
各位，二元经济非常重要，大家想一想，在二元经济环境之下，在座各位会来听我演讲的人基本上都处在过冷的环节。
那么地产商为什么最近那么喜欢办论坛？除了要勾引各位来买楼盘之外，还有他自己没底。他不晓得为什么他的房子越
来越贵，还还有人来买，他搞不清楚，所以最近我这半年的演讲特有意思，过去半年以前，都是80%的制造业，现在都不
是，70—80%都是做地产的，最近这3个月，请我演讲的都是开新楼盘找我演讲，什么原因？好，我告诉各位，在二元经
济的环境下，你们都处在过冷的部门，地产业好象处在过热的部门，但是他内心深处是惶恐不安的，大家想一想，当政
府大力推动宏观调控，他怎么做呢？四年来，进入第五个念头，他是千篇一律的，一定是以提高利率，提高银行存款准
备金率，没有别的了，就这两个，各位再想一想，当中央银行提高利率，提高银行准备金率是个什么结果呢？那就可以
大量收回流动性，这是一定的嘛。提高利率，我们不想借钱了，流动性就少了，收回存款准备金率，提高银行存款准备
金率，银行提高贷款，不借钱给你了，社会钱就小了，这样做可以有效的控制住所谓的流动性过剩是吧？但是郎教授的
理论不一样，因为流动性过剩是错的。如果流动性过剩是错的，而你不断的提高利率，不断的提高银行存款准备金率，
你知道发生什么现象吗？三个现象，第一个，你会逼的每一个银行，收回流动性，他怎么收？他就从你们制造业部门收
回流动性给谁呢？给地产，给ZF，去搞GDP工程去了。而这就是为什么从去年到今年5月份，我们的广义货币增长量和
信贷规模增长量一直维持在16%以上，没有减少。为什么没有减少呢？那就是银行从过冷的部门大量收回资金到过热的部
门去了，理解吗？所以你们处在过冷的部门更冷，而过热部门更热。理解了吗？听懂了没有？
这是第一个。讲到在座各位的心态了，我们在座各位企业家会怎么做呢？感到日子太难过了，因为利率上升了，银
行抽回流动性了，你干不下去了。再加上我前面讲的汇率不断的上升，再加上我们劳动合同法等等的推出，你更不想干
了，稍微负责任的一点的人继续扛下去，不太负责任的人，什么山东、东莞的企业的人，晚上12点，在夜深人静的时候
，把工厂关了一走了之。这就是最近发生的事，你不想干了，你手上的钱怎么办呢？叫你投资制造业你肯定不敢。因为
Can not do it anymore. You? Began to stock speculation, which is why starting in 2006, the stock market is hot, hot property market will be the reason. Share reform is not successful,
Share reform is a failure nor a better economic development. But the failure of share reform, economic development, even worse, so stock up, and the property market rose, and this is all of you for
Behavior. The third phenomenon, that is in front of me talked about phenomena Haier, many entrepreneurs do the manufacturing sector, including Haier, the appliance, and other manufacturing industries not go dry,
Margin is negative, how should we do? Withdraw substantial funds, withdraw from the cold of manufacturing a lot of money, hit the overheated sector do developers go. So
These three phenomena, in the macro-control and what the labor contract law under pressure, first from the cold sector banks withdraw funds to a large number of overheated sectors in base
Foundation construction, building houses went.
Second, the manufacturing sector entrepreneurs to withdraw from the cold to the capital to speculative stocks. Third, the cold sector entrepreneurs to put into the hot money out
When the developer went to the department. These three phenomena, inevitably makes the cold colder department, department of overheating hotter. This is why four years under the macro
To be failure, because the overheated sector too hot, too cold sector colder. I believe I say more here, you have understood, had the Chinese economy today
Problems, not from anything else, from what? Dual economy.
So, your concern about the following topics, inflation, official data is more than 8%, food prices 22%, 70% of the price of pork (count inflation)
, Ladies please note that our petrol price is in Hong Kong 1 / 5. Our petrol prices are in Hong Kong 1 / 5, if the price of oil transferred to the international level, then gasoline will go up 4
-5 Times. Overall inflation uncontrollable. So I ask you, how come inflation? I have already said, the property bubble and the stock market bubble formation was originally cold sector who do not want done, hit the money stock and property markets overheated stock speculation went, and unrelated to excess liquidity, inflation? I said and flow
Of nothing. Although the high mobility of our country is a fact, but it has nothing to do. Why? Why is there such a serious inflation? So please consider a
Next, in the dual economy, the funds generated an unprecedented phenomenon of counter-current transfer. From cold to hot sector departments, therefore, increasingly overheated sectors
The more heat, and overheated sectors all sectors related to raw material prices rise, how cold sector do? Cold sector will make the price decrease? No, just
Good contrast, why not? I put forward in Hefei on this pig story. Today you go shopping, you will discover that you buy vegetables every day to more than 50% of the money
I recently remember to, I met some media say, Professor Lang, recently build a good ah, I said I was to lose weight, and I said can not afford to eat pork, I cut
Fat, not only can not afford to eat meat, fruit also can not afford, and in Shanghai, I would like to buy a car cherries, 50 pound, I was shocked, I intuitively reflect, I do not buy, I buy
Two orange enough. Lang, Professor, you can not buy you 50 dollars? No, because it was 12 pound, now 50 dollars a pound down I can not accept.
So do not buy that. Cherry prices rise, food prices rose sharply. How come? That is the dual economy. Take the case of pork, right? Pork, chicken
, Fish, eggs are the same, you find the reason is that prices of pork and pigs, private entrepreneurs and the investment environment faced by the manufacturing sector, like you, their
Investment fast deteriorating business environment and technology, the first, feed prices, swine fever, swine business environment to deteriorate, he was flute section sector, how can he do? He
Just like you, he did not raise, and to those who should invest the money in the pig does not voted, do? Stock speculation went. Finally found that pork prices
The reason is that no pig had follow-up.
And this explains our observation of many economists, they actually say, we the people of China pig farmers from the suppliers of the past into the consumption of pork
Those words sound very strange in this, our interpretation of the dual economy is not very clear? Why become a consumer out? He went to the stock speculation Well, who
Pig ah?麻烦啊，炒楼多好啊，养什么猪啊，最好到上海炒楼。苏州也可以。你发现，过热部门由于你过热，和过热部
门有关的原材料价格大幅度上涨，过冷部门呢？由于供应不足价格一样大幅上涨。所以二元经济不论过热不论过冷，其
必然结果是同失控，就这么简单，过热部门也造成膨胀，过冷部门以猪肉为例也造成膨胀，这就是目前的现实情况。更
可怕的是什么？
更可怕的是我最近在这三个礼拜开始，一再呼吁***注意的问题，那就是进口通货膨胀难以控制。 What do you mean? To
你一个数据。最近石油价格大涨，粮食价格大涨，可是各位来宾知不知道？石油也好，四种主要粮食也好，包括稻米、
小麦等等的，你们晓不晓得全球的供应目前都是供过于求，你知道吗？以粮食为例，四大粮食的仓储量是1.46亿吨，而
消费者量只有1.32亿吨，还是供过于求。石油呢？我记不太清楚了，石油每日的供应量好象是8700万桶，消费量是8400
万桶，还是供过于求，按照经济学的理论，粮食也是供过于求，石油也是供过于求，那按照经济学的理论，粮食价格，
石油价格应该下跌啊，为什么上升了呢？各位猜想一下为什么上升了呢？想一想？我下面一句话是我们中国人甚至全世
界的人类从来没有经历过的一次前所未有的一次，重大冲击！那就是，全球的粮价以及石油价格被国际金融炒价所操纵
，就这么简单。他们怎么操纵？
利用期货市场操纵。我们来想一想，站在他的立场上想他是怎么欺负我们？我们中国人口很多，因此我们中国人买
哪一种货品都必然造成价格上涨，没错吧？比如说重金属、铁矿等之类的，只要我们中国去买，就一定造成价格上涨，
再想一想，这些可恶的国际金融炒家，他在全球的股市以及全球楼市已经无利可图，他在想，如果中国人买什么产品，
什么产品价格上涨的话，而且它必须要买，资源缺乏，人口太多，那么他们是不是可以这么做？事先当他们知道我们中
国人要买什么东西之前，他就在国际市场先把价格拉个老高，然后卖给我们中国人，有没有可能呢？其实半年前我就这
么说，只是我这个人讲话没人听的。我回去跟我们家人讲，不听，跟你们讲也不听，跟我们家的那只狗讲也不听。 Certain
要到自己亲身经历过一切的痛苦之后，他才知道，郎咸平教授三年前就说过。包括人民币货汇率的问题谁讲的？ 2003
年我在广州发言的，都应验了。国际金融炒家看准这个机会，你要买什么，之前通过各种金融隐身布局，拉抬产品价格
，比如100块钱买入，拉到300块卖给我们中国人，你能不买吗？到最后生产者不赚钱，我们消费者赔钱，真正赚了大头
的基本上都是国际金融炒家。从来没有发生过误差。是2008年开始的。所以你们今天听我的演讲非常重要，虽然你无能
为力，但是你死的非常明白。
那么这种进口通货膨胀，加上，二元经济过热部门产生膨胀，过冷部门一样膨胀，这种二元经济和国际通货膨胀两
相勾结之下就产生了我们目前的通货膨胀。同志们啊，这和流动性过剩有什么关系啊。 Really.这种流动性过剩的说法啊
，我讲一句挖苦的话，那是美国大学教课书一年级的水平，大学本科书一年级的书就这么讲的，流动性过剩会造成什么
什么，这是咱们的水平。我今天讲到这儿你们都听懂了吧？如果只是简单的流动性过剩，我这个课5秒钟就讲完了，讲到
Now, only just begun. You can imagine the complexity of the Chinese economy? Reviewing the Old to make you I do not then go on, forget the past listened to before, I
Speaking in front of you in here to make a summary, you listen carefully, understand the following about us down. OK? You now have all of the problems encountered,
Including the day of sadness, including the price of pork rose, including weight loss, and so on, what the property market bubble, the stock market bubble, inflation, private enterprises xiao
Section and so on, there is only one source, not the excess liquidity is the dual economy. On this one. This dual economy, macro-control to do as long as ZF, the more macro
Control, overheated sectors hotter, colder than cold sector, as a macro-cold sector money flows through three channels overheated sectors. So that has caused
Property bubble stock market bubble. So where inflation come from?
Very simple, binary economy, the overheating of the sector necessarily result in inflation, it is inevitable thing in life, too cold department? As the shortage is still made
Into inflation, then the dual economy overheating has expanded too cold expansion, together with the international financial speculators for manipulating the important raw materials, resulting in an unprecedented serious
International inflation, the two together to form today this situation has nothing to do this and excess liquidity. And though you're not an economist, you heard me
Mentioned here, you already know we are talking about are right. OK?
So all of you the dual economy dominates everyone's daily life, you usually basic necessities that all of the dual economy. I remember the day before yesterday, I participated in
Add this sonorous three lines, they were looking for me to baseball games, I find this topic, the moderator asked me that Lang should we fight against international financial speculation
Home, and I believe that this is your problem, right? Do you know how I answer it? I say right right right, we should fight, and we should not only fight, but
And many countries should be combined with the fight, you know a word is? Final results not perform well in all of us to be defeated. Not all countries engage in
Well have been lost out of international financial speculators. I ask you, who was it who beat England's central bank, George Soros, the Asian financial crisis start? International financial speculation
Home. Property prices in Hong Kong, Hong Kong's stock price between 1997 -98, the value dropped by 60%, who raise his flag for? International financial speculators, the collapse of Japan's economy, but also
Remember? Who caused it? International economic speculators? Do you want to fight him? Thanks to both the brush, watching all read, also against it? It's a bit harsh in my words of
You listen to me talk, you know? I was asked a question, Lang, Professor, I recently read a book called the currency of war, seen it? Do not
, If the international financial speculators to such a level, we can giggle, and if you watch the book you feel terrible, I tell you, you are too timid
A real high level of international financial speculators that book at least 100 times, 1,000 times I tell you. Many people ask me, Lang, Professor, how do you know
? I said you know what, I'm not an economist, I am not holding Ph.D. in economics, I take the world's most professional financial team leader. I say all this
I am a professional, I have taught so many in the U.S. universities, I have had numerous training international financial speculators. Then I was asked, and Lang, Professor, how can you not do it
International financial speculators? I tell you, do not, why? Have races, white man can do. Understand? It was a really profitable industry, but
I know how they operate. The most outstanding students in our class are speculators. Have you think, Professor Lang has been smart enough, right? They and I
Compared favorably, and I on a person, they are tens of thousands. So you want to beat him, not easy!
So you see, the international inflation is so terrible. All this does, from what? Increase the capital from knowledge! One of the most sophisticated ever
金融学知识配合上强而有利的金融资本，席卷全球，你知道什么目的吗？会透过国际通货膨胀，而使得全球所有国家的
执政能力大幅下跌，会造成全世界所有国家的ZF产生管控危机，我告诉你，你相信我吧，那两把刷子我清楚得很，因
为各国ZF的弱势，管控失控有利于他们？为什么要炒到底？为什么要让小麦价格大幅度上涨？因为国际金融炒家要在
全世界因为饥饿造成死亡，使这些国家不得不震撼，不得不用高价进口粮食，下一步可能会在贫穷国家造成粮荒，死亡
，一旦死亡，你就会逼迫该国ZF用高价购买粮食，从此以后国际金融炒家掌控全世界重要资源的定价权。理解我的意
思吗？
我再重复一遍。为什么要炒稻米和小麦？尤其是稻米？因为稻米食用国，吃稻米的民族很多国家是贫穷国家。 Rice
危机会产生严重的后果，那就是很多国家会产生死亡，一产生死亡之后，ZF会有极大的压力必须用高价进口大米，从
此巩固了国际金融炒家对于稻米的定价权，理解了吧？你们再看看最近的电视报道。韩国开始，印度，各个国家到处暴
动抗议，抗议通货膨胀，最近，越南经济崩溃了你们知道吗？怎么造成的？通货膨胀！理解吗？因为越南通货膨胀已经
高达25%，老百姓不想持有越南的货币，而且由于国际粮荒，越南的大米不愿意出口，因此无法换来大量的外汇，再加上
越南老百姓想持有外国货币，不愿意持有本国货币，两个力量加击之下，第一个抛售本国货币使得汇率下跌，第二个出
口停止，因为国际粮荒大家都不出口粮食，使越南的原来的贸易顺差变成逆差。越南货币开始贬值，越贬值越通货膨胀
，越恐慌，越恐慌越出售本国货币，越贬值，形成恶性循环，因此越南是整个亚洲地区第一个倒下的国家，这一切是国
际金融炒家的杰作，理解吗？都听懂了吗？所以为什么ZF今天要控制通货膨胀？太重要了。当然我这一切演讲都是随
时更新的啊，你下面再听结果是一样的，内容不一样了，因为很多新的现象会出来。越南垮了，下面就是印度这几个国
家，就是吃稻米的国家一个个会倒下去。这个话听起来很好笑，但是这是国际金融炒家的战略，因为超稻米的国家相对
而言是比较贫穷的和吃小麦的国家相比是比较贫穷的，菲律宾是吃稻米的，自己还不生产稻米，现在很多国家开始违
反WTO的协定，不出口稻米，保护自己资源，保护老百姓，这一切都是国际金融炒家闯的祸。 Like how?同志们？晚上睡不
着觉了吧？ 3点多了啊，时间过好快啊？这一次演讲是不是第一次听过？你们是不是觉得情况够糟了？还有没有胆量听更
糟糕的？要不要听更糟糕的？
郎咸平：刚刚在休息期间，很多人跑来问我问题。就是关于这个国际金融炒家的问题。大家很好奇说，他怎么掠
夺财富？我们能不能解决？我们要联合起来啊这个问题。我就想，这么告诉各位，今天这个时间是有限的，我们不可能
把整个国际现实和各位讲清楚，但是我跟各位这么讲，150年前，西方国家是以东印度公司为前导，炮舰为后盾前略各国
，今天呢？以金融为前导，国际化为后盾。依然可以达到150年前相同的目的。所以当时我们的老祖宗是进入到一个前所
未有的新时代，今天我们这代人也进入到一个前所未有的金融战争时代。那么大家就在休息期间很多人讲说，郎咸平
教授最后一段你讲到越南的那一段讲的太，听不太懂，能不能再发挥一下让我们知道怎么死的？要不要听我讲的再详细
一点？
大家：要。
郎咸平：要不要我再讲了？继续再讲下去是吧？满足每一个人都很困难的。但是这个是我前面没有讲过的。 2008
年年初的越南和1997年之前的香港很类似，什么叫很类似呢？是资产泡沫化，股市泡沫化。在97年的香港楼价涨的飞快
，恒生指数从9000点涨到18000点左右，相对于今天的越南，在半年之前，外汇盈余非常多，股市也好、楼市也好，这个
时刻啊，资产一旦产生泡沫，不论你是以什么形式所表现的，包括房地产，包括股票，就会成为被掠夺的对象，掠夺的
方式很多，掠夺越南跟掠夺香港是不一样的，这就是国际金融炒家厉害的地方。掠夺香港怎么掠夺？假装狙击港币什么
叫假装狙击港币呢？就是通过卖空。什么叫做卖空？我以股票市场为例，我们有股指期货，今天我向一家公司借来一个
股票，以今天的价格50块卖掉，到了明天价格跌到了30块，我再把它买回来，还回去，因此赚了差价，50—30块钱的差
Price.货币也可以卖空。怎么卖空？向某一机构借出港币，用今天的价格卖掉，明天轮到港币跌落的时候买回来还回去。
这是卖空，通过卖空港币，卖空港币，让港币缺货，一缺货呢？银行之间对于港币的拆借利率上升？上升到什么幅度呢
?在香港，拆借利率上升到268%，因为都卖了，缺货。那怎么赚钱呢？你想怎么赚钱呢？所以你发现搞金融是最有利可
图的。怎么赚钱？香港被整惨了，那就是好象是狙击港币，实际上他的目标就是股票市场。 What does that mean?他是假装狙击
港币，就在狙击港币的时候同时大幅度的卖出恒生指数期货，期待股票市场大跌。所以利率上升到268恩%，利率上升，
在中国以外的其他国家，股价会下跌的。估值从18000点跌到6000多点，房价跌到60%，这些下跌的房价和股价被席卷而
走，香港进入了全民所有箫条，日本也是这样。今天的越南呢？不一样了。你不要期待他去越南去，每一个战争都是独
一无二的重新设计，对付越南呢？就通过国际通货膨胀，让越南的整个国家的通货膨胀达到25%，使得越南老百姓对ZF
失去信心，开始恐慌性的抛售越南币，越抛越贬值，货币贬值，再加上国际粮荒，粮食价格上涨，使越南以出口大米为
导向的经济停止出口大米，更进一步的打击了贸易的顺差，造成贸易赤字，又是贸易赤字，造成贬值，又是抛售越南币
进一步贬值，越贬值越糟糕。越贬值进口通货膨胀更严重。大家开始抢购，稻米、玉米什么都抢，大家都不想持越南币
，半年前，越南被称为亚洲最有前途的国家，突然之间经济崩溃，就这么崩溃。所以，打击香港就是假装卖空恒生指数
期货，从股票市场获利打击越南，是打击稻米以及通货膨胀开始的。非常危险，越南是倒下的亚洲第一个国家。走到这
一步，你就会回忆起郎咸平教授5年前不断的告诉中国银行，要保持中国的经济的完整，就是固定利率制度，和外汇严
格管制，只有这两种方法才能够阻绝国际金融炒家阻击。
他们的方法，第一步国际化，第二部卖银行，第三步就是股指期货，而我们做的很好，都在干。银行更为外资所掌
控，再加上股指期货的推出，你就给国际金融炒家创造很好的条件，而我们做的很积极。我讲过没有啊？我讲过的。 5 years
前我就讲过的，我们一定要走到那一部才知道郎咸平教授是对的，太多事例证明我的远见了，但是没有人听，我讲这
些故事对你们来讲太不可想象了，有那么可怕吗？一定要到哪一天才会知道。
而这也是为什么我一直反对推出股指期货，我一直反对人民币浮动，我一直反对银行卖掉银行股权，我就是怕这么
一天，这么一天正如郎咸平所料一定会来。因为我是进金融学博士，我太知道了。我不是经济学家，我是商学院的金
融系，我不是经济学家。你们可能会感觉到，事情好像很可怕，如果你认为这就算可怕的话，太简单了，你知道吗？ Situation
况更有意思，你再想一想，我们制造业这么箫条，国际金融炒家怎么看我们呢？甚至有人讲说，国际金融炒家很可能热
钱流入，流到股市、楼市里去。你们听过这个说法吗？那是我们非常可爱的国内经济学家的讲的话，你知道他为什么这
么讲吗？他就这么个水平，他有钱就去炒楼炒股，我有钱的话，那么国际金融大颚有钱的话一定来炒楼炒股，好可怜啊
，你太小看人家了，那是你的水平，你觉得他们会怎么做？除了造成国际通货膨胀之外，他下一步怎么做？讲的具体一
点，怎么对付在座的企业家？
大家：收购！
郎咸平：收购啊！你们在干什么？你们在搞地产！你们觉得没劲，你们不想干了，你们想搞地产，你们晓不晓得
你们的行为将使得中国逐步走向香港模式，你们知道吗？香港是以地产和金融为主的一个地区，我们二元经济的最后就
是使得我们慢慢走入了香港，地产越来越火爆，越来越炒股，那你丢下来的制造业怎么办？你自己不想干了，你空下来
的空间谁去取代你？会是我们中国企业家吗？他炒楼炒股去了。谁取代？所以今天我就回答那位朋友的问题，他说他想
搞一个私募基金，去收购企业，搞搞研发是吧？研发不必搞了，你没希望了。你就来点短期利润好了。你想到的事，只
要你想得到，好吧？国际金融炒家绝对比你早想到了，信不信，只要你想到有利可图的事情，他们应该是已经快完成了
.这就是一个知识加资本的时代。那么在这个时刻，待会你们听完演讲之后走出去，你们看到苏州的天空跟过去不一样
了，苏州的天空呢，上面翱翔着两只秃鹰，这两只秃鹰看着在座各位的慢慢流血的尸体，在天空上翱翔着流着口水，看
着你们的肉体，啃蚀着你们在座各位，把你们在座各位吃的尸骨无存，一片肉一根骨头都不留下来，把你们都吃掉，这
就是他们在干的事，这两只秃鹰是谁啊？我想以我们企业为例啊？你们多少人还认为青岛啤酒是国营企业的？目前的青
岛啤酒青岛国资局控制30%，第二大股东美国的安海西公司控制27%，怎么控股的？乘人之危，2001年，青岛啤酒干不下
去了。股票从8块跌到1块，负债比率89%，在这种危机的情况之下安海西公司进来了，他们购买了青岛啤酒所发行的14亿
元的可换股债券，买了。买了之后，青岛啤酒拿这些钱去降低负债比例，由89%降到了41%，郎咸平教授背数据还可以
，背的挺熟的，但是一到期之后呢，就把可换股债券全部转成股票，控股27%，它可以轻轻松松在香港H股市场再买4%的H
股，突然之间，青岛啤酒就变成外资企业，它所以没有这么做，因为它不想激起中国人的注意，早就可以这么做了。 It
是谁？它就是天上翱翔的第一只秃鹰，叫做产业资本。徐州有一个公司叫做徐公，他当初想卖给美国的凯雷基金，包括
我在内的很多人反对，你不能因为这家公司的净资产为负就卖掉，因为一家公司的价值不取决于净资产，而取决于这家
公司的永续经营能力。最后没谈成。虽然它的条件很优厚，但是反对声浪太大了，这是2004、05年讲的我说了，你卖给
凯雷基金不如卖给郎咸平算了，我们做法是一样的，会把徐公分拆卖掉，就这么简单，这就是基金干的事，你100块卖
给这个基金，他给你分拆，拆的细细的，碎尸万段一块块卖掉，他可以赚1000块钱，与其这样不如卖给我，我也可以这
样做，你干吗卖给他呢？凯雷基金把你拆的碎尸万段，把你卖掉，他是谁啊？凯雷基金就是第二个翱翔的秃鹰，它叫做
金融资本，就是那位朋友所谓的私募基金。你的水平和他们不一样的，你想到的事别人都做完了。那么这两只秃鹰，天
空翱翔着，看着我们苏州工业园区的企业家的窘境，看着你们慢慢流血的尸体，飞扑而下，打着招商引资的旗号。你们
想不相信？
下一步，我们江苏两省的汽车零配件业，内资企业将全部被席卷，零配件业一定是外资和合资的天下，不会有内资
的空间。如果你是做内资零配件业的你趁早炒楼炒股，而且合资的零配件业也可能在不久的未来被踢走，变成独资的变
成外资的，因为你没有利用价值了。谁来完成这种工作？产业资本以及金融资本，两相比较，产业资本更可怕。你们在
座各位只要做的好，稍微好一点，稍微有一点规模的制造业，应该都已经和两只秃鹰谈判过，这句话没错吧，基本都上
都对，尤其是你们苏州，只要做的稍有规模，稍有成就，稍有科技含量的，基本都谈过，没错吧，当你们跟他谈判的时
候，请你记住我今天告诉你的话，他们是秃鹰，当你看这个合同文本的时候，我请你注意从第一个字开始看，处处是陷
阱。而且签合同啊是中英文两份是吧？以哪一个文本为主啊？对，以英文为主。我们老中英文又不好，我们的律师英文
也不咋的，真的。我们自己聘的律师英文还不行，还不一定看的很懂，到最后各种纠纷全部出来，纠纷一旦出来基本对
你是不利的，那么他们在干嘛呢？你们可能会说，郎咸平交涉在二元经济之下，我们中国企业家这么勤奋，这么努力
，我们都做不好，他们做的好吗？以后，不准再问这种笨问题，这种问题太笨了太蠢了，他做的好重要吗？同志们？ You
晓不晓得他们在干什么？他们在金融战之上已经开始一个前所未有的产业链战争了你知道吗？今天中国制造业的困境不
是你不努力，不是你不勤劳，不是你的成本不够低，而是从2008年开始我们全世界已经进入到一个前所未有的产业链的
战争时代。而不是产品的竞争。也不是产业的竞争，而是整条产业链的竞争。
都听懂了吗？所以为什么你们这个招商地产他们领导内心深处惶恐不安呢？这个问题很清楚的得到解决了嘛，为什
么这么多的地产商，在2008年的时候不断的请郎咸平教授演讲，除了招客户之外，他也想知道怎么回事，他发现他的
The more you sell the house the more people buy, strange, do not know, and where's the money? ZF more macro-control, he sold the better, unreasonable! His psychological anxious, on
The right, before I say that I have one property, you Do you know, why raise interest rates a stock on the up and why? No one can explain, in addition to
I am beyond that level ah. Indeed, Professor Lang is not bragging here, no 有两把刷子 not mountebank. Want to know why?
You: think.
Lang: interest rate was revised upward, inside the cold dual economy entrepreneurs find life more difficult, how do? Do not want done, put the money from the cold
Department Naqu overheated sector stocks, it's that simple. The more stimulation the more macro-control him, the more quit, the more to the stock. More simple ah, are clearly explained in the dual economy
Clearly Chu. The last mentioned property. These real estate developers ah, for instance, investment real estate as an example I ah, sorry ah, is not another company's ah, it is this
Were too sensitive, I do not want to talk about it, and investment bar, investment bar, I think about it, the anticlimax Okay. Merchants built in Beijing in 1872, an estate called the Park 1872,
I order you to do this lecture, I went to check, opened at 20005, in the Fourth Ring Road side, facing the park, Physics and Chemistry, Physics and Chemistry park here, on his side open
A real estate known as the year 1872, where the estate does not look at the park 20 005, every glance retired park, the higher the positive side, higher park, 80000, is not opening this year, sold out
After the sell side delves expected to be completed within three years, how dare you open all the way from 20,005 to 80,000, you're actually betting on a dare someone to buy, this price in the end who in attracting
? Bay side of the new rings, three projects, 40 000, but two second-hand house prices of between 20 000 7 3-2 million, almost close to 40% discount at 3, he played
The slogan is the decoration is 10,000 yuan per square meter, you need to make 10,000 yuan fitting it? Finally, I went to visit after that, wow, looks like the feeling of the museum. Howe
China's unthinkable. Are not home, and live how can I sleep in the museum you feel ah. You are the 10000 one meter fitting what you want to attract people to buy a house? Too
Reality. Therefore, your attention please, the year of 80,000 yuan in 1872 prices, and new pricing bend of 40,000, there are 10 thousand dollar renovation, is definitely not value for the
This phenomenon is what attracted people to buy? And even sold out, you will find that the contrast of the market demand price is the standard formation of the dual economy
Market. What market? Is that these entrepreneurs do not want to invest in, and hands so much money going to do? Is to attract this group of people, but this group of people
Funding is erratic, so I give it a name called Virtual funds of funds is erratic. Think about the costs of his real estate business into a rigid
This includes money to buy land, build costs, is the demand side of rigid and your money comes from entrepreneurs do not want to invest in virtual money, virtual money that has even
What features?
1, no supervision, 2, unpredictability, 3, can not control. It is erratic, to go to a trace without a trace. So this explains why he was in real estate who
Heart is anxious, and because the cost of the supply side is rigid cost, and the demand is erratic demand, you understand it? Can make it, and this demand can
From this strange pricing. So why is real estate outside the Shenzhen customs decline in value of it? Or so many? The reason is very clear, would go off to buy a house are small outside
People, these people want to buy a house when the macro-control has come, not to borrow money. So he found in Shenzhen, senior real estate prices are strong, because
The entrepreneur's virtual money, and cheap real estate prices plunge, we little people can not afford to fall further to buy. Macro-control to combat the affordable housing, so the formation of such
Unique only eccentric this abnormal price gains. This can be a simple as turning point it? No inflection point, basically, is the virtual money at work
，打到哪里哪里就泡沫，就这么简单，我在去年5月份到重庆演讲，重庆领导告诉我，重庆地产价格是2900元一平米，去
年5月，我当时就很表扬，我说这个很好，没有泡沫，哇，媒体马上头版头条说，郎咸平说没有泡沫，我很少说别人好
，我一说好别人就很激动，我说所以没有泡沫是因为企业家的虚拟资金还没来，我当时讲别人听不太懂，结果到了6月份
，我走了一个月之后，话音未落，言犹在耳，重庆市搞了一个城乡统筹新特区计划，这个新特区计划一出来，大量虚拟
资金打到重庆，到了去年11月份为止，房价从2900元变到6000元，完全失控，你说，这和经济发展有什么关系？就是这
些企业家不想干了，去炒楼炒股去了。我记得我演讲的时候，就突然有几位企业家跑上来抱着我又亲又摸的，而且还是
男的，说郎咸平教授，我今天很激动听你的演讲，我们听你的演讲很激动，我们是陕西煤老大，我们就是虚拟资金的
提供者。哪里有新概念，我们就去哪里炒楼。时间差不多了。还愉快的跟各位玩了一个下午，在玩耍的过程当中，我们
嘻笑怒骂的，用各种幽默的方式把我们中国的经济剖析的非常清楚非常到位是吧？剩下的半个小时，在位各位有什么问
题，我愿意和各位做个讨论，都听懂了吧？
主持人：接下来的时间可以提问。
提问：郎咸平教授，你好，是这样子的，在您的观点当中除了楼市、股市之外其他都是冷的，我们看一下媒体报道，现在所有的声音都是楼市已经进入了十年以来最长的观望期，楼市是比较冷的，这样说的话，是媒体错了，是我们错了还是你错了？还有第二个问题，因为您是一个受争议的一个人物，你在大陆的受关注度比香港要高的，你说香港的人太现实了，他们都炒楼炒股，所以你来到了大陆，但是今天来看的话，大陆的人的接受度是不高于香港的，我想请问您一下，人家都说你是郎监管，下面你到那里做监管？
郎咸平：我以几个楼盘为例，告诉你，高价位楼盘坚挺，中低价房价是下跌的。比如深圳地区，他这一两年来，
他的70%的楼房都建在关外，而关外是深圳老百姓都不愿意去的，要跌都是从那些地方开始跌，70%的建设，大量的楼盘，你感觉房价从1万7跌到1万1，但是你们招商局地产苏州有限公司盖的楼盘就没有跌，而且卖的很好，这个就是地产的二元经济，你不要简单的认为是一个疲软，而是要讲谁在疲软。你一定要到了高价楼盘疲软，你才能够说地产是疲软的，而高价楼盘是否疲软要看企业家是怎么做？如果企业家的资金一旦撤出，高价楼盘就会疲软。那么他什么时候会买呢？就是他所处的投资环境持续恶化，他拿着钱不想投资企业，那么继续投资楼盘，那么高价楼盘就继续坚挺，这个就是二元经济的问题。
第二个问题你讲到我个人了，公开场合我不想谈我个人，大家对我的私人生活特别感兴趣。我不想回答，那么郎咸平你为什么不到香港发展，到我们大陆来回答呢？我的回答很简单，香港人不鸟我嘛，就这么简单。 OK?有没有其他问题？
提问：郎咸平教授，你好，我想问一个问题，刚才谈了这么多问题了，我想大家都有所了解，但是如果说，你是跟中国的ZF来做一个决策的辅导的话，你认为有没有什么相应的解决方案呢？我觉得这个也是比较重要的。
郎咸平：好，当然他今天在忧国忧民了，郎咸平教授你这个观点我们领导知不知道，你想问这个话题是吧？能不能也提出一些解决的办法？那么我告诉你，我相信啊，领导都比我聪明得多得多，我相信这个观点应该都会知道，但是你要晓得，我今天是简单的跟你们讲这个课，其实这个可以讲8个小时，我只把其中的重点跟你讲了一下，才3个小时，你想多么复杂？
美国ZF处理他的经济都是这么复杂，更何况我们的。这个国际金融炒家配合上二元经济以及秃鹰的问题，产业链竞争的问题，这么多问题纠结在一起，形成一个难以解决的现状。今天我站在一个客观的立场上谈，我把问题剖析的非常的清楚，但是你要推着一个大机器解决这个问题是很困难。就算一个人理解了我的理论，他想推动这么多的官员，这么多企业家要解决问题是非常的困难的，我今天不想做苛责，而是要告诉各位，这个问题太复杂了，连美国都受困于现在这个困境，更何况是其他国家。
今天你们来听我的演讲，我作为学者的责任，我有理由，我有这种责任要把问题给你剖析的非常清楚，但是你们要清楚，问题给你讲清楚之后，问题比你看到的流动性过剩这种理由要复杂的十倍百倍千倍以上，因此，你应该怎么做，你自己心里应该有盘算，我不可能在公开场合告诉你怎么做，但是我告诉你讲，我的理论不是一个简单的理论，而是经过大量的数据调演走到今天的，所以为什么这么经得起考验，这不是我不会错的问题，这是由于各种数据得到的结论，任何一个人都会得到这样的结论，这就是科学。
那么ZF面对这么多的错综复杂的问题，他难以推动庞大的机器解决问题，我个人非常理解，第二，你作为企业家本人，一个简单的话题就够让你困扰半天了，那就是你今天决定你是要继续从事制造业还是不做？这么一个简单的问题你都解决不了，你信不信？如果你一个人，都解决不了自己企业何去何从的问题，虽然你都听懂了，你怎么能够期待这么大的国家推动这么大的机器解决所有问题？是非常困难的，我建议各位回去好好思考一下，你准备下一步怎么办？你都听懂了以后，你回去做思考，才有脉络可寻，才有逻辑的思维。你们的决定才会比较正确，这是我今天给你演讲的最大的目的。
提问：我想请问一下，海尔家电既然做不下去了，为什么还要收购通用电器的白色家电？
郎咸平：这个问题，收购兼并本身，我不想通过这个问题扯出来一大堆话题，家电收购的目的是什么？如果你只是一个简单的规模做大，那么我告诉你，你下一步是非常艰难的，最近，IBM这几年，收购了很多公司，而且我们注意了，他所收购的公司都基本上和软件的中间件有关，而它放弃了很多公司，包括电脑制造不要了，给了谁？
给了柳传志同志了，他为什么这么做？送给各位一句话，除了6+1的整合之外，那就是他们的收购基本上符合了他们这个行业的行业本质。 OK?行业本质是我最近研究的一个新的课题，今天我们没有谈到，既然你问到的话，我给各位花几分钟时间谈一下，我们过去的管理学教育不是不成功，而是极为偏差，我们过去管理学教育注重什么呢？注重的是资金，技术，人才，管理模式等等。
没错吧，比如说且如何融资，财务管理，第二，产品升级技术升级，第三个，人才培训，人力资源管理，第四，各种管理模式。这四者是一个企业生存的必要因素。你不能没有，一个企业不可能没有资金，不可能没有技术，不可能没有人才，不可能没有一套管理模式，但是到了2008年的今天，我给各位提个建议，那就是我们过去管理学上的疏忽就在于我们的教育只注重了这四项，叫做企业成功的必要条件。我们的企业家普遍缺乏企业成功的充分条件。
什么是企业成功的充分条件？那就是行业本质。
一个企业要成功，就一定要把握行业本质，什么叫行业本质？你们做的一辈子的行业，回去想一想，你做的一辈子的行业他的本质是？我就以你提的家电为例，白色家电的本质是什么？绝对不是像海尔一样的收购，你看看美的等等，他要做的好就一定要符合行业本质，而白色家电的行业本质，是这样子的。 1、你要有极高的性价比，包括我们所熟悉的格兰氏的微波炉。
2、要绝对的专业化。一开始只能生产一种产品。 3、等你高性价比的专业化成功之后，你才能够搞渐进多元化你如果不顺着这个思路走，你就很难做的成功，而这三部曲就是白色家电的行业本质。手机的本质是什么？
你们在座各位有多少人用中国制的手机？国产手机？国产手机请举手，只有2—3个。你们晓不晓得，国产品牌有3000个型号？而你们大部分人所用的国外品牌加在一起所有品牌加在一起只有300个型号。难道3000个型号就没有一款适合你的吗？就没有一款你喜欢的吗？ Would not you?为什么中国的企业做手机几乎都是失败的？难道资金、技术、人才、管理都不行吗？ Would not you?你说做手机有多难？很简单的科技。你这个组装过程有什么难的？为什么你做不好？资金、技术、人才、管理模式，我告诉你，大家都有。你知道缺什么吗？中国这么多制造手机的工厂就缺一个充分条件。那就是没有把握手机行业的本质。
这是我给他的诊断，因此对于手机工厂而言，你今天收购一个，什么技术升级啊，都没有用，不是说没有直接的用处，而是这一切都是要在一个充分条禁，行业本质的指导之下，你做这四项，资金、技术、人才、管理模式才有价值，否则，否则你就沦到3000款中的一款。各位思考一下你为什么用国外手机，因为国外的手机都符合了行业本质，否则无法生存。他的本质是什么？他的本质就叫做适能。什么叫适能？你们愿意听吗？
我们中国企业家都有一个思维的谬误，总是寻找有潜力的行业，那么你可能要反问我了，郎咸平教授我们企业家寻找有潜力的行业难道错了吗？难道我们要选找没有潜力的行业吗？好，我这么回答你，你既然来听我的课，我就要求你，从现在开始就给我寻找没有潜力的行业，越有潜力越不要干，思维的冲击，为什么我这么说？我就以手机为例，你晓不晓得三千款的手机的大部分都是中低档手机，你知道吗？包括TCL的，我给各位一个数据，高档手机的市场份额是18%，中档手机68%，低档手机14%，也就是说中档加上低档占了82%的市场份额。
The high-end mobile phones accounted for only 18%, if all of you entrepreneurs, all of us out of every 10 000 We carry out his joint venture company, manufacturing mobile phones, I would like to ask you, if your thinking is from the total potential cut into the market, you find the most potential market, what you will produce mobile phones. By the way, you will produce medium and low cell phone, because it accounts for 82% of the market,
Comrades, go far enough? You just use this inertia of thinking to find potential markets, you must invest with middle and low mobile phones, the inevitable result is that you are a thousand models of mobile phones, people do not, people do not, that simple!
If you do not believe, you will see this ad, you see, Acorn International to do the ad, he did the domestic mobile phone advertising, each of which emphasized what? Function is infinitely good, right? I function better too unthinkable, have a cell phone, after I lost my phone can call to my cell phone, my cell phone all the data transferred back from the air, or even someone else picked up my cell phone, he used, I can enter a password so that not a he. I believe that Nokia is no such standard. You use the Motorola, Samsung can not do this, only we Chinese mobile phone can do this, I tell you, they sell well, you will sell well this emphasis function. You went wrong ah? You went wrong ah? Ideological problems. Thinking is wrong.
So you, the LG did not understand the last two years, rising star of a sudden rush of international brands, he out of a cell phone, called Chocolate, chocolate does What is the function? You can not answer, because chocolate what functions? To eat, sweet sweet honey, love the feature, when you talk about chocolate, you absolutely can not imagine his functions, because LG is absolutely not play its function, LG's second phone that? Shine cell phone, get up and look like a mirror, as we think, what is its function? If can not remember what his function. I ask you, your Motorola cell phone recently, the lid is transparent, you have not used? What is his function? In addition to a transparent lid features than what? Think about what function? Can not remember, to be very hard to think, because when Motorola made this ad, he never emphasized features? What is the function of Nokia phones? If not remember, at least, after this phone I can call out the data to come back to me, such a complicated function of the foreign mobile phones do not seem to see, how can you sell 4,5 thousand dollars, but also Nokia V2 (VERTU, Caran comments) mobile phone, what is his function? His keyboard is the ruby, as well as Rolls-Royce of fur, 8, 1000 ah, why are you spending so much money on this phone ah? Ruby keyboard you need it?
I tell you, mobile phones abroad are right, China's mobile phone is wrong, wrong? They really grasp the nature of the industry, called fitness. What do you mean? That you want the phone to sell well, from this most certainly does not cut into the potential of high-end market, the more potential there is no more to cut into, and pulled himself how? Acorn International, said not as full-featured, no, but by feel. With a sense of himself as high-end mobile phones, and then cut into the high-end mobile phones, more than half a year stay at the highest point, and accumulated a lot of fitness after the downward pressure came down from the most potential to make money in low-end market, understanding I mean? You do not take this model will certainly fail. I'll give you a proof, you have to use Nokia, basically not making money, Nokia's most profitable signals which one?
1100型。就是卖了1亿台了。 1个亿了。也就是说，当你用感觉拉抬适能到最高之后，凭借着优越的适能，向下横扫中低端市场，从最有潜力的中低端市场赚钱。因此，诺基亚的手机卖的最好，而诺基亚手机的平均价格是最低的。诺托罗拉卖的第二好，他的手机平均设价是第二低的，三星卖的第三好，他的平均价格是第三，所以手机卖的最好的就是诺基亚、摩托罗拉、三星，真正赚钱的是中低端市场，一平均下来诺基亚的手机平均价格最低，因为他从中低端市场赚钱，但是按照在座各位的思维，如果你想寻找有潜力的市场切入的话，你就直接用功能切入中低端，你就一定失败。我把话给你放在这儿了。
理解我的意思吗？要成为一个卓越企业家不容易啊。差不多了吧。
提问：我非常荣幸最后一个提问。我想请教您一个问题，刚才您讲到整合，这个课题也是非常的有作用。这也是经
济学的一个比较新的话题。传统的话，经济学里面有个比较优势，任何一个国家，任何一个产业，找到你的定位，适合
你做什么再去做什么？这个从比较学优势来说的，我们中国是适合的是制造业，如果我们走老外的很高端的产业链的话
，我们有没有这种水平，我们是不是需要经过一个漫长的过程才能够转化到这个产业链上，如果一个人要吃三个馒头的
才会饱的话，你一定要从第一个馒头开始吃，然后吃到第三个馒头才会饱。
郎咸平：这个同学问的很好，我们的产业链是定位在制造，可是最赚钱的就不是制造。而是6+1的6。他问的问题
是，我们是不是一定要从1开始走才能够进入到6？我告诉各位，你要把我们全国企业家的思维从1转到6，你晓不晓得有
多困难？因为经过这么多年的教育，我们一直在1打转，比如你们常常听到的产业升级是什么意思？就是1，就是在1上面
继续下工夫。资金，技术、人才、管理模式都在1上面下工夫。要引进更先进的设备，把1做好，要生产出更高级的产品
卖的更好。你们有没有想过，这么多年来，我们就是这么教育我们的企业家。所以资金，技术、人才、和管理模式。 Base
本上都是为1而服务的。那么中国，有没有做得好的企业。有，比如说华为，如果在座各位，还认为华为是1，他是制造
通信设备的厂商的话，你就大错特错了，华为能够走到今天，是因为他好象是花了2亿元请IBM给他做的6+1，他靠的6+1
的整合走到今天，这个整合我给它打个分数，华为的6+1和IBM相比，IBM是5分，华为是2.7分，水平不如IBM，2.7分也
够你国际化。另外一家，富士通，台湾叫做红海，好象是一家OEM的工厂，好象是一家代工企业，为什么他的代工会成功
，而别人的代工不成功呢？我最近在深圳发表了一篇研究报告，我们在上面可以看得到，他之所以成功是因为他掌握
了6+1，而且这个掌握的6+1 的6是个高效整合，这个才是各位的未来，我们过去，产业政策方面，有很大的思维误区，
我也希望今天我这个演讲能够给各位一点启发，感谢各位，下次有机会再来。
主持人：我们非常感谢郎咸平教授给我们带来的精彩的演讲，那也非常感谢各位今天的参与，谢谢，让我们以热
烈的掌声欢送郎咸平教授
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